So, it's a black Wiimote with a wireless nunchuk and a camera. Way to go, Sony. You really put those R&D dollars to good use.

OK, so calling Sony unoriginal wouldn't really be anything new. I mean, the Sixaxis was their extremely weak effort to counteract the unveiling of the Wii's motion capabilities, and the Move is what they've come up with in the last five years, resulting in… another Nintendo copy.

Who are they attempting to appeal to here? People who own PS3s want traditional control – otherwise, Sony wouldn't have stuck with their sturdy Dualshock controller design. So their "core" gamer isn't going to be swayed by "The Shoot" or "Move Party." And the Wii has such an installed fanbase that they're not going to be swayed either – sure, there's 20 games coming out for the Move this year, but they're mostly rehashes of Wii sports and party games, and the people who want those games almost definitely already own them. Then there's the price point. Obviously, the people who would buy this thing are going to be people who don't already own PS3s, and even with the Slim model, you're paying over $400 for, essentially, what you're getting with the Wii, but in HD and with way fewer game options.

Sony's not going to be successful with this unless they can chart their own identity. Unlike Microsoft's Natal, which is defiantly unconventional and different, Sony's controller is bound to be awash in the tidal wave that is the Wiimote. What would make people want to abandon the Wii Sports Resorts and the Metroid Primes and the other (mostly Nintendo developed) games that make nearly perfect use of motion control already? Like Nintendo, they're probably going to have to rely on a combination of their solid franchises as well as original party games. Sony should look to Japanese developers for some really crazy ideas – it worked with Nintendo's WarioWare series; perhaps Sony should consider resurrecting the PaRappa the Rapper license?

Unfortunately, I think they're going to half-ass it. They'll release a few games to middling or no success, fall back on their traditional control, and try to forget that the Move ever happened. In the meantime, Sony (and Microsoft, to a lesser extent) are always going to be playing catch up in this field, as Nintendo's already working on their next game changer. It's clear that this next generation won't be defined by increased HD visuals, but by who can innovate in other ways the quickest and cheapest. And in this case, it's clear to me that Nintendo will likely continue to dominate (at least from a financial standpoint).

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I don't necessarily disagree with anything you've said, but I would like to point out that there is an advantage to it being so similar to the Wii Remote and Nunchuck: game developers have already figured out how to use that configuration.
By contrast, Natal is a bit of a head scratcher.  It'll be really easy to get out some HD versions of Wii games in a flash, and including it as an optional control method for more traditional games will be fairly easy.
I'm not exactly enthusiastic about it, but I think a certain modicum of success can be expected due simply to ease of implementation.  

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